2014 will be a Year of Escalating Ransomware, Bitcoin, Privacy and Digital Vagrants
As each new year begins, there is a lot of temptation to ‘predict’ the future. The reality is that the future in technology and security often unfolds in a linear fashion as new inventions and techniques encompass old ones.
Here are a few trends observed in 2013 that may well continue into 2014, with some new and interesting challenges as well.
In 2014, Ransomware and Malware goes a ‘level up’
Last year, the emergence of the Cryptolocker malware was an inevitable continuation of the ransomware trend, but what set it apart was its sophistication and ability to encrypt files and then demand money from victims so successfully.
One might argue that targeted threats to individuals in the past have been just as troublesome, but Cryptolocker has gone a ‘level up’ and represents a much more brazen attempt to extort money from victims, costing more time and money to recover from than before.
Security researchers have often quipped “it could be worse”, as online criminals seem to hold back from inflicting the maximum damage possible to make their instant fortunes, but in 2014 all of that may well change, especially if Cryptolocker is anything to go by.
Other less commonly reported examples of ransomware infections in 2013 included the ability to take photos of a user with their own web camera. The photo of the victim is then used in a threat to report the user to legal authorities for fake crimes, using material such as child pornography, that is uploaded onto the victim’s computer as ‘evidence’ by the malware.
Internet vigilantism
Proponents of offensive security argue that cybercriminals continue to flourish because their crimes go unpunished. Accordingly, there are already a number of secretive clandestine groups operating on the Internet attempting to counter crime in ways that may well include acts of Internet vigilantism – disrupting the work of cybercriminals independent of established law enforcement agencies.
Internet vigilantism was clearly in effect in 2013 when several digital citizens took it upon themselves to investigate potential suspects responsible for the Boston Marathon Bombing, bringing about the term ‘digilante’.
At the same time the term ‘active defence’ seems to have gained popularity in the security community also and many are now daring to refer to the concept of ‘offensive security’ – where potentially unethical tactics are employed to hunt down attackers online.
Money wants to be free in 2014
The concept of peer-to-peer technology, once associated with the need for users to share music, movies and other content for free, is now being applied to Money – in the form of Bitcoin, ‘crypto-currencies’ and other digitally-based financial instruments. Expect to see a lot more on this topic this year.
How these crypto-currency technologies, which are incredibly complex, will end up infiltrating mainstream society is the real challenge. Plus governments around the world already share very mixed sentiments as they deal with the inevitable taxation issues that will arise.
This year, keep your eye on Bitcoin (and others such as Litecoin and Novacoin) and be very cautious of the volatility and high risk of what is still a relative minnow in world finance; and prepare to see the world evolve as the technologies behind them are tested and explored further.
Privacy – It’s all about choice
Last year, thanks in part to Mr Snowden, we learnt that there are aspects of our lives that are under constant scrutiny from the indiscriminate collection of data by Government agencies. But for most other things we do in our private lives and on the Internet the one thing to remember is that Privacy can still be our choice.
In 2014, I expect to see continued debate around how we all must stand up for our rights and choose what our own comfort levels are when it comes to Privacy, but also how individuals may eventually need to align with one another to create common goals in this area.
There are those that don’t wish to live in a surveillance state, while others have complete faith in the ability of their governments to protect them. And some that merely wish to be informed of the best products and bargains by revealing their location and purchasing habits willingly to third parties. Either way, let’s hope that freedom prevails in making our own choice.
And then there are the new and invasive technologies to deal with, whether it’s what happens when more people start wearing gadgets such as cameras that record everything they see like Google Glass, or your next-door neighbour hovering their Quadcopter over your backyard….
Digital vagrants
Over the next five years, as many as 2.5 billion people are expected to be connecting to the Internet across the world for the very first time. That’s a lot of novice users experiencing the same learning curves that many of us have already dealt with.
However, faced with ever growing technological complexity these new users face a much steeper learning curve and, unfortunately, are likely to be just as vulnerable as experienced users once were.
We know that protection is best achieved with an equal combination of the right technology, up to date systems and the highest level of awareness and education in the face of the latest scams and tactics; it remains a constant battle to ensure that new users are provided with enough knowledge to remain safe and secure.
But users who are left behind to wander around in an online world that largely ignores them are nothing more than the digital equivalent of vagrants – people who are left to cope in a world that has become too overwhelming.
This year I would expect to see solid growth in remote technical support services, already evidenced by recent innovative offerings such as Helpouts by Google. However, with all-too-common threats such as the “Microsoft call scam” this situation will no doubt also provide a boost to criminals.
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